Nigeria’s Federal Government and 21 states have collectively set an ambitious Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue target of approximately N2.53 trillion for 2025, a substantial 65.8% increase compared to the N1.527 trillion projected in 2024.
The figures, derived from reports by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) spanning October 2023 to March 2024, highlight an aggressive push for revenue growth in the coming year. These projections exclude potential additional revenues from the yet-to-be-implemented tax reform bills.
Federal and State-Level Projections
The federal government’s share of VAT revenue is expected to rise significantly, from N512.8 billion in 2024 to N972 billion in 2025. At the state level, significant increases are projected across the board:
- Kebbi State: Up from N41 billion in 2024 to N87.3 billion in 2025.
- Kaduna State: From N48.2 billion to N57.8 billion.
- Ekiti State: From N52.6 billion to N54.9 billion.
- Oyo State: From N78.8 billion to N144 billion.
- Osun State: From N45.3 billion to N78.1 billion.
Other notable projections include:
- Ogun State: N85 billion (2025) vs. N57.7 billion (2024).
- Enugu State: N74.9 billion (2025) vs. N44 billion (2024).
- Borno State: N87.3 billion (2025) vs. N49.4 billion (2024).
- Kano State: N97.3 billion (2025) vs. N76.6 billion (2024).
Broader State Contributions
Additional states, such as Ebonyi, Gombe, Anambra, Abia, Niger, Jigawa, Bauchi, Akwa-Ibom, Adamawa, and Delta, also reported significant increases in their VAT projections. Notably:
- Delta State: From N45.7 billion to N46.6 billion.
- Jigawa State: From N45 billion to N80 billion.
- Akwa-Ibom State: From N45 billion to N70 billion.
Ongoing Challenges
Budget documents from 14 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were unavailable at the time of analysis, raising questions about the inclusiveness of these projections. Additionally, the implementation of controversial tax reform bills could influence these estimates.
The 2025 VAT revenue targets reflect an assertive fiscal stance by Nigeria’s federal and state governments to enhance internal revenue generation and reduce reliance on oil revenues amid evolving economic challenges.
